BJP to make a Comeback in 2024, Modi to Become PM Again?
BJP’s comeback in Manipur and its tall leadership may be the keys to Modi’s victory in the 2024 elections. Is it again going to be Ab Ki Baar Modi Sarkar? Read on to understand why a BJP victory in 2022 will be vital for Modi’s re-election in 2024. The article also provides insights on BJP’s plans to increase its share of votes in polling booths. It also outlines why Yogi Adityanath’s win in Manipur is important for the BJP’s future in the 2024 elections.
BJP’s comeback in Manipur
BJP’s comeback in Mani pur is a big step in the right direction. The party had previously been in opposition in the state for 15 years, but has cobbled together a coalition government in 2017 that swept the Congress out of office. The party has now reduced the Congress to a single digit in the state’s voter registration. It will try to capitalize on its success in Manipur and expand its influence in the region.
The BJP has maintained its lead in Uttarakhand, despite losing its share of seats. The party has a lead in 42 seats, compared to 25 for the opposition. In Manipur, the BJP is likely to emerge as the largest party, but the party is well short of the majority. In the state’s only by-election, the BJP’s Chief Minister N Biren Singh has come within a few thousand votes of the 270-vote threshold.
The BJP’s comeback in Mani pur is not impossible, but the party needs to win the state again. It has already taken a majority in four states, including Uttar Pradesh and Goa. In 2024, the BJP is hoping to expand its margins in these states. The BJP’s core voter base is mostly dispersed, but that doesn’t mean it can’t get back there.
With these victories in three of the four states, the BJP is now poised to win the 2024 Lok Sabha election. In a speech in New Delhi to party workers, PM Modi urged his supporters to keep their focus on the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. “If we win today, we can win in 2024 too.”
But while BJP’s comeback in Mani pur may be an overstatement, it is important to remember that it’s not just the BJP that is winning elections. It’s also the Isak-Muivah faction, part of the National Socialist Council of Nagalim. If the BJP can win in Manipur, the rest of the North East will surely follow.
Yogi Adityanath’s tall leadership
As Uttar Pradesh’s new CM, Yogi Adityanath has a lot to prove. His first litmus test, the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, was a resounding success, with the BJP capturing 64 of 80 seats. This election result, coupled with the picture of Yogi with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, reinforced Yogi’s stature within the BJP. Yogi’s electoral journey dates back to 1996, when his father, the late Mahant Avaidyanath, made him the election manager. Mahant Avaidyanath abdicated his seat, but Yogi stayed, and worked in the BJP.
The election results were largely in line with the expectations of voters. While the BJP’s leadership was apprehensive about Yogi Adityanath’s ambitions, the state has long denied it. Yogi Adityanath’s inauguration at the BJP’s headquarters is seen as a coup, though many people doubt his sincerity. In his previous avatar, Yogi Adityanath ran his own party.
In March 2017, Yogi Adityanath was designated as CM of Uttar Pradesh. He emerged as a clear winner, beating Rajnath Singh, Manoj Sinha, and a who’s-who of BJP-party members. His first campaign speech was a fiery speech against Muslims. But the people reacted well to Yogi’s words. They voted for him and he has since become the state’s Chief Minister.
Unlike many state CMs in the past, Yogi Adityanath’s tough-minded approach is unmatched. He has embraced tough decisions without hesitating or allowing criticism to derail his progress. As a result, he has made his state much better than before his leadership. The state is now stronger and more prosperous, thanks in large part to Yogi Adityanath’s efforts.
Amit Shah, BJP president, endorsed Yogi Adityanath as the party’s chief during the UP assembly elections. But Amit Shah also made his visit to Lucknow after Yogi Adityanath’s inauguration. Amit Shah said that 44 senior party members were consulted before deciding on Yogi Adityanath as the next chief minister of Uttar Pradesh. Yogi Adityanath’s name was not a front runner until he reportedly won the election.
With its recent appointment of a new general secretary, the BJP plans to expand its base in the state and win more seats in the 2024 general elections. In Karnataka, the BJP hopes to break the shackles of the Chief Minister B.S. Yediyurappa, but it must be cautious about attempting to take him on without a successor in place. The party will also use every poll that leads up to the 2024 general election to build its cadre and strengthen it at the polling booth level. The panna pramukh will be assigned the voter list, a key role in the counting of votes in booths.
BJP has formed a committee to identify weak booths and increase their participation. The party has identified 73,000 booths that need improvement, primarily in the eastern and southern states. The BJP is considering strengthening its presence in 150 Lok Sabha seats in these states. The committee’s members include BJP vice president Baijayant Panda, party general secretaries CT Ravi and Lal Singh Arya.
The BJP is in a strong position in the run-up to the 2024 general election. Only Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose party has a strong electorate and a large base of supporters, has the ability to pull more than 45 per cent of the vote in any part of India. Only Modi can beat him. The BJP has won several states and is poised for more. However, the party has lost ground in other states as well, including Telangana, Goa, Kerala, and Punjab.
In Chennai, the BJP has won a councillor’s seat after 20 years. The BJP’s success in the civic polls can be attributed to the central government schemes that have been implemented during the PM Modi’s tenure. For example, the mudra loan, the DMK’s signature social welfare scheme, is impacting election results in Chennai. The DMK has plans to expand into the southern part of the state and form organizations in semi-urban areas to gain votes.
The BJP is already in the process of consolidating its voters across castes and communities in the state. However, this may take a few years to happen. A lot can happen in the meantime. For instance, in UP, BJP may gain an additional five seats because it can use its new leadership to consolidate the votes of the Samajwadi Party leaders.
Yogi Adityanath’s victory in 2022 is necessary for Modi’s win in 2024
Yogi Adityanath’s win in UP 2022 will lay the foundation for Modi’s success in the upcoming parliamentary elections in 2024. The BJP has been hoping that Yogi Adityanath’s victory in the upcoming UP elections will secure its national ambitions. If he wins, he may replace Prime Minister Modi and become the chief minister of the country’s largest state.
If Yogi Adityanath’s win in 2022 is necessary for Modi’ winning in 2024, it will only be a matter of time before the party can focus on western UP. The Congress Party once considered itself the only viable alternative to the BJP, but now finds itself humiliated in Punjab. The party needs a strong lead in western UP to win the next parliamentary election.
While Yogi Adityanath’s emergence is inevitable for Modi’s political future, a loss in 2022 will likely prompt the BJP to reconsider its strategy. A defeat will also raise questions about the role of Yogi Adityanath as chief minister. However, a loss would not be a disaster for the BJP, since it’s a party with massive machinery that has the means to handle any “last mile” issues.
The BJP has maintained its majority in India’s largest state, Uttar Pradesh, with a clear majority in 202 seats and leading in 53 of the 99 states that have yet to be declared. In fact, Adityanath may be the next prime minister of the country, as he represents the Hindu nationalist movement. Yogi Adityanath is the poster boy of Hindu nationalism, and his success in 2022 would cement Modi’s position in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
If Modi wins in 2024, his UP win will be vital in keeping his party’s momentum in power. It’s likely that the BJP will have trouble winning the upcoming elections, since UP is considered to be a bellwether state for national politics. A Yogi Adityanath victory in 2022 will make him the tallest BJP leader in India.